Actually in my view it's Josh ability to estimate that's in question. I have no doubt about his ability to deliver. Estimation, on the other hand, is virtually impossible for LT simply because it's one guy doing something that no-one has ever done before. Thus far Josh has announced targets by naming a date that seems comfortably far off into the future, insofar as I can make out. This kind of estimation always falls victim to Hofstadter's Law. The only kind that really works involves the establishment of engineering norms and the like, in order to scientifically project the completion of work whilst factoring in all of the variables. Even then it's touch and go on any project of great complexity.Hyperion wrote:Josh's ability to meet deadlines is very much in doubt.
In the RTB update Josh said:
I think you've got to be pretty determined to find a deadline in there to read this as anything but: it's done when it's done.Josh wrote:Well, the official release date of the Beta is, as of now, "as soon as humanly possible." What this means is that, if tomorrow I miraculously wake up with 10x as many neurons and am able to implement every remaining facet of LT in a casual 8 hours, then the Beta comes out in two days. Yes, you could rightfully point out that it's an awfully fancy way of saying "when it's done" -- but I hope that you all can see that it's more genuine than that. The truth is, I can't put a date on it with confidence (let's face it, I'm new to this and, thus far, have been pretty awful with dates). But what I CAN do is what RTB promises to do: shift the focus entirely to game completion, and show you that we're moving significantly closer to that unknown date every week. I still do have every intention of hitting early 2015, but, like I said, I'm not going to get more specific about dates.
Which at this point is the right answer as far as I'm concerned. The key point is making progress on the game, not meeting arbitrary dates.
On the topic of Josh working on the UI vs. whatever other thing he "should" be working on: I can only echo what Axefrog wrote above, which match my sentiments exactly. I also recommend that everyone read the latest article linked to in the "LT in the news" thread and reflect on what it is about LT that impresses the writer.