Market Bubbles
Posted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:19 pm
Hi, looooong time stalker of the forums, first time poster.
Disclaimer: I am not an avid follower of the forums and am sure some of these ideas have been posted before. Just throwing in my 2 cents.
What has me excited about this game is that Josh seems to be putting a heavy emphasis on economics. Besides Eve Online, a monster I don't want my life to get sucked into, I have yet to see a videogame that does markets well. Few do free markets, but even fewer do realistic markets.
I am talking trade tariffs between systems, Regulations and banned goods (Smuggling), Intellectual property, Investments, inflation, corporations, marketing, Interaction between various economic and governmental systems, Trade guilds, and my favorite, market bubbles. I have yet to see any of these in a game so even done one, or somehow, doing all would make the game in itself. Josh seems to be focusing on having independent AI actors which would allow all these systems to emerge themselves.
Now realistically, launch costs for rockets would probably outweigh the income granted by most commodities this game will allow you to trade, but screw that, i want a space trading game. Caravaneer in spaaaaaceeeee.
(https://www.kongregate.com/games/sugarf ... ravaneer-2)
Lemme give a few examples of what I am talking about.
Tariffs:
System A is dependent on system B for its food, therefore to develop its own food source, it puts a trade tariff on imported wheat. When the player sells wheat to them, he must pay that tarrif (unless he succesfully smuggled the goods, in which case the transaction is illegal and on the black market.)
Regulations and Banned Goods:
Each system's government has its own regulations on what is banned, and what is taxed what amount. System A may allow slaves to be traded while alcohol is banned and vice versa for system B. I seem to remember this is planned, and black market transactions (with their associated risks and prices) were planned too. However, is trade tax planned. System A may only charge .5% tax on transactions while another more stringent, maybe Feudal society, has a tax of 10% on merchants. The difference would dictate how you trade.
Inflation:
Will there be multiple currencies or one galactic currency? If there are multiple each issued by their own respective government, it would make sense for their prices to fluctuate relative to each other. Money could become a commodity itself, and therefore change in value. If you then start invading or destroying one of these governments, you could trigger hyperinflation.
Governments could also perhaps change how much money they "print" And money should over time generally inflate in value in healthy markets.
Interactions between different governmental systems:
Maybe one planet is capitalistic, another communistic, another feudal. Maybe one planet's economy is a command economy dictated by a supercomputer. It tells traders what it wants to buy in what quantities in what time window and you trade with it like that, and no other way. These should interact with each other. In a free market planet you should be able to spend time looking for a better deal, where as with a communistic marketplace trading with the outside world, you might only be able to buy a few goods, but buy those goods you can buy really cheaply. (Result of an inefficiently run command economy that overproduces some items and underproduces others, great for a profiteering capitalists like yourself!)
Intellectual property:
It seems this is already planned which has me so excited. Selling patents? Heck yeah! Own that patent to a drug to cure the epidemic on system A? Profit you capitalist thug! Go manufacture that drug and sell it by the boatload at 1400% manufacturing costs! Or maybe become an inventor. Create weapons, farm equipment, you name it! Procedural generated engineering and tech research allowing you to become an engineering/R&D firm.
Trade Guilds:
Perhaps traders unite under a banner, like a guild or a workers union. You as a player could join, or even create and run such a guild. Maybe they charge membership fees to allow you to trade within their jurisdiction, taking their own percentage of your profits too. Failure to trade under their rules or without membership would result in their military retaliation!
I am thinking East India Company, a corporation which functioned like a sovereign nation, except in space. They could control and dictated trade with nations, and perhaps you as a player could help upset their monopoly, or you could increase it, monopolizing trade within your empire!
Investments:
This already seems to be a thing you want, but I sure as hell want to be able to hold stock in a company. I want to be able to take out loans to build a factory in system A to create the clothes they so desperately need. I want to be able to invest in AI run companies, giving me some say over them, and perhaps, allow me to take them over, buying them out.
Free market for trade + stock market for corporations = win. I would play this game even if the graphics consisted purely of a spreadsheet.
Market bubbles
THIS IS THE ONE THING I REALLY REALLY WANT.
Let's say planet A has a small ice sheet from which it sources its water. That ice sheet only has so much, and it is running out. Additionally, the mining operations on planet A are very profitable, so it is expanding in population rapidly.
AI should forsee then that water will soon become in large demand in this market, and assuming it does not get enough trade with the outside world, this should result in a bubble. Water, even before it has actually run out, should inflate in price greatly because people forsee greater future demand and a huge future decrease in supply. The AI shouldn't look at the current demand and current supply, but also future demand and supply. Maybe this outpost knows that traders will bring in water once it runs out, albeit at a higher cost than mining the ice sheet would be. Therefore, AI speculates and increase the price some, but not skyrocketed up to the levels it would be in a crisis shortage.
THINK OF THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS. The player could then FAKE a shortage. Yes, I want to be able to spread rumors and misinformation. I can spread a misinformation campaign on a planet that X will soon be in short supply, creating a market bubble I can exploit for capital gain.
That's ambitious to say the least. I doubt such market speculation could become a thing in LT, but if it did, I would throw my money at the screen.
TL;DR
LT AI should anticipate future market conditions and adapt accordingly, naturally creating price bubbles. Additionally, not just free markets, broader economic interactions could make this game the best trading sim ever.
Disclaimer: I am not an avid follower of the forums and am sure some of these ideas have been posted before. Just throwing in my 2 cents.
What has me excited about this game is that Josh seems to be putting a heavy emphasis on economics. Besides Eve Online, a monster I don't want my life to get sucked into, I have yet to see a videogame that does markets well. Few do free markets, but even fewer do realistic markets.
I am talking trade tariffs between systems, Regulations and banned goods (Smuggling), Intellectual property, Investments, inflation, corporations, marketing, Interaction between various economic and governmental systems, Trade guilds, and my favorite, market bubbles. I have yet to see any of these in a game so even done one, or somehow, doing all would make the game in itself. Josh seems to be focusing on having independent AI actors which would allow all these systems to emerge themselves.
Now realistically, launch costs for rockets would probably outweigh the income granted by most commodities this game will allow you to trade, but screw that, i want a space trading game. Caravaneer in spaaaaaceeeee.
(https://www.kongregate.com/games/sugarf ... ravaneer-2)
Lemme give a few examples of what I am talking about.
Tariffs:
System A is dependent on system B for its food, therefore to develop its own food source, it puts a trade tariff on imported wheat. When the player sells wheat to them, he must pay that tarrif (unless he succesfully smuggled the goods, in which case the transaction is illegal and on the black market.)
Regulations and Banned Goods:
Each system's government has its own regulations on what is banned, and what is taxed what amount. System A may allow slaves to be traded while alcohol is banned and vice versa for system B. I seem to remember this is planned, and black market transactions (with their associated risks and prices) were planned too. However, is trade tax planned. System A may only charge .5% tax on transactions while another more stringent, maybe Feudal society, has a tax of 10% on merchants. The difference would dictate how you trade.
Inflation:
Will there be multiple currencies or one galactic currency? If there are multiple each issued by their own respective government, it would make sense for their prices to fluctuate relative to each other. Money could become a commodity itself, and therefore change in value. If you then start invading or destroying one of these governments, you could trigger hyperinflation.
Governments could also perhaps change how much money they "print" And money should over time generally inflate in value in healthy markets.
Interactions between different governmental systems:
Maybe one planet is capitalistic, another communistic, another feudal. Maybe one planet's economy is a command economy dictated by a supercomputer. It tells traders what it wants to buy in what quantities in what time window and you trade with it like that, and no other way. These should interact with each other. In a free market planet you should be able to spend time looking for a better deal, where as with a communistic marketplace trading with the outside world, you might only be able to buy a few goods, but buy those goods you can buy really cheaply. (Result of an inefficiently run command economy that overproduces some items and underproduces others, great for a profiteering capitalists like yourself!)
Intellectual property:
It seems this is already planned which has me so excited. Selling patents? Heck yeah! Own that patent to a drug to cure the epidemic on system A? Profit you capitalist thug! Go manufacture that drug and sell it by the boatload at 1400% manufacturing costs! Or maybe become an inventor. Create weapons, farm equipment, you name it! Procedural generated engineering and tech research allowing you to become an engineering/R&D firm.
Trade Guilds:
Perhaps traders unite under a banner, like a guild or a workers union. You as a player could join, or even create and run such a guild. Maybe they charge membership fees to allow you to trade within their jurisdiction, taking their own percentage of your profits too. Failure to trade under their rules or without membership would result in their military retaliation!
I am thinking East India Company, a corporation which functioned like a sovereign nation, except in space. They could control and dictated trade with nations, and perhaps you as a player could help upset their monopoly, or you could increase it, monopolizing trade within your empire!
Investments:
This already seems to be a thing you want, but I sure as hell want to be able to hold stock in a company. I want to be able to take out loans to build a factory in system A to create the clothes they so desperately need. I want to be able to invest in AI run companies, giving me some say over them, and perhaps, allow me to take them over, buying them out.
Free market for trade + stock market for corporations = win. I would play this game even if the graphics consisted purely of a spreadsheet.
Market bubbles
THIS IS THE ONE THING I REALLY REALLY WANT.
Let's say planet A has a small ice sheet from which it sources its water. That ice sheet only has so much, and it is running out. Additionally, the mining operations on planet A are very profitable, so it is expanding in population rapidly.
AI should forsee then that water will soon become in large demand in this market, and assuming it does not get enough trade with the outside world, this should result in a bubble. Water, even before it has actually run out, should inflate in price greatly because people forsee greater future demand and a huge future decrease in supply. The AI shouldn't look at the current demand and current supply, but also future demand and supply. Maybe this outpost knows that traders will bring in water once it runs out, albeit at a higher cost than mining the ice sheet would be. Therefore, AI speculates and increase the price some, but not skyrocketed up to the levels it would be in a crisis shortage.
THINK OF THE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS. The player could then FAKE a shortage. Yes, I want to be able to spread rumors and misinformation. I can spread a misinformation campaign on a planet that X will soon be in short supply, creating a market bubble I can exploit for capital gain.
That's ambitious to say the least. I doubt such market speculation could become a thing in LT, but if it did, I would throw my money at the screen.
TL;DR
LT AI should anticipate future market conditions and adapt accordingly, naturally creating price bubbles. Additionally, not just free markets, broader economic interactions could make this game the best trading sim ever.