Talvieno wrote:Well, look. The chance of getting either 40% is about 64%(very roughly, just estimated it more or less). This means that his chance to hit at least one of them only *very* slightly decreases (by about... 3 percent-ish?) and he *also* has the chance to hit both of them (even though that's only about 16%). Roughly equal chance to get a kill, with a 1 in 6 chance to get a double kill? I'd take that shot.

Actually, I already did the math above, and yours is a bit off I think

You decrease you chance of hitting at least one by 6 percent to get a chance of 1 in 16 to kill both, which is a bit less positive.

And that's only if he has a +2, which means they have to have intuition + durability =-1 or lower. If they don't have that (which seems likely, since they're heavily armoured) and he only has +1, it becomes

79% chance of hitting nothing (instead of 66)

19.8 % chance of hitting one of them

1.23% chance of hitting both

(instead of 33 to hit one)

So you're kind of gambling double, since we don't know their stats.

If he wants to go for that, great! I just want him to make informed decisions because I know most people aren't good with probability math.

BFett wrote:I don't recall saying that I was going to shoot both targets to better my chances of hitting one of them. I am very aware of the current rule about shooting multiple targets with one weapon.

Well, you said

BFett on IRC wrote:<BFett> why do I only need to shoot one

<BFett> I don't want to miss

Maybe you meant something else by that, but you didn't elaborate ¯\_(ツ)_/¯