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Re: The Limit Theory Email/RSS News Thread

#46
Friday, April 6, 2018

Happy Friday o7

This log is going to be short (EDIT: modestly-sized) and underwhelming. I'm tired and lacking in the usual flair due to a long and not-so-great month. Real life has been both more time-consuming and more exhausting than usual this month, and that's all I'm going to say on the matter :monkey:

Concerning the last devlog: yeah, I got it :cry: That was pretty rough, forum, but I got the message. I haven't touched the thing in a while now. I do think some people missed the emphasis on me needing a tool to keep it all manageable; at the same time, I can't deny it, I've been known to fall prey to ShinyTechTools once or twice in the past :oops: So, regardless of who is right or wrong, I've turned back to 100% gameplay focus for a while in hopes that it'll help those who are feeling anxious about the state of LT. I know it's been five years but...let's relax a bit. Getting overly-worked-up about this game doesn't help anyone!


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My focus right now is on the economy and AI. I'm working to get back to a small, functional economy where the AI is performing basic gameplay mechanics to create minimal-but-real market activity. This means: mining, navigation / pathing, trading. From there I will expand by porting more of the high-level AI, in particular, project management so that AI players will be able to choose between activities and dynamically react to economic conditions. Most of this stuff is just a matter of translating things that already exist (in C++, LTSL, or my brain) into Lua, so it's not very difficult. I've got the market mostly-working; the bulk of the remaining work is in AI porting.

Adam has burned through a lot of tasks this month, many of which have been on TODO lists for a long, long time. I can't hope to list it all out, but the man has probably touched every code file in both the engine and the game at least once in March :lol: All hail Adam \o/ On the gameplay front, he's brought over the top bar for switching between various interfaces, and we're both working to populate it with UI content. We've got a WIP command interface, to be joined shortly by a port of the scanning/exploration interface.

All-in-all, things move quickly when we're working on the game side of the game, and, as far as I can tell, we don't have any real blockers on that front at the moment, so...smooth sailing. At some point I will have to go back and commit to either finishing the last 10% of, or scrapping, the tool-which-must-not-be-named, but that doesn't have to be done right now. Lord knows we all need a nice, long ride on the gameplay train to restore some sanity :squirrel:

I'll post shinies when I have them, but right now there's not really much to look at, especially considering you all have seen this stuff before (mining, markets, etc...). Nonetheless, when I've got a bustling system of AI activity working again I'll slap some screenshots up.


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Recently I've been doing more thinking (about the game). Remember when I used to do that? Think? Yes, it was fun! Since this log is short and I (regrettably) don't have enough work to talk about, I'll just talk about an idea that has been on my mind this week, old-devlog-style.

A few days ago I started thinking about the birth of cities and how it must be quite an exciting process -- imagining a settlement starting with just a few shoddy abodes, watching it sprawl out over time into a bustling metropolis as wealth pours in. SimCity, I guess. It made me sad to think that this process doesn't really occur in LT, since civilian life is largely hidden behind the black-box veil of colonies. We have space stations, of course, but those are large, discrete investments. We can try to think about the growth of a single station over time as new modules are added. But it's still boring compared to the 'organic' growth of something like a city, where the building blocks from which the whole is born are absolutely miniscule in comparative size.

That's really the key, too, isn't it? When the superstructure is made from atoms that are 'tiny' compared to the whole -- the buildings that make up a city are tiny compared to the city itself, the cells that make up living beings are microscopic compared to the whole, etc. -- that's when the growth process (and I dare say, the final result) is the most interesting. It's this granularity that makes it interesting in the first place! We can and will see such growth processes in many places in LT. But civilian life is largely absent, and it makes me a bit sad. So, what can we do about it?

As with many of my ideas, the answer may well be: nothing. And that'd be fine. But another possible answer is: 'microstations.' Or, to strip the idea of all pomp: "why don't we just do in space what we do on the ground?" Think about how we can make the equivalent of a 'building' in space. Instead of having to have monolithic stations, what if we thought more in terms of 'ship-sized' modules? What if large 'factory' modules -- the kind that scifi/space sims take for granted as being the norm -- were the exception rather than the rule? What if a small settlement could form, one household at a time, around a large, unusually-rich asteroid, in a completely granular fashion, until the population has reached a point of saturating the natural resource yield? Imagine small little 'space houses,' like organic scaffolding hugging the rock. Perhaps such houses could even be converted from ships (yes, I'm talking about trailer parks in space). Perhaps this would be the precursor to a superstructure like a station. Perhaps a (civilian) station is not built, so much as it is grown.

The idea appeals to me on many levels. It makes economic granularity vastly better, which means jump-starting the economy is easier, making sure it can sustain itself by growing and shrinking as necessary becomes easier...basically all the problems with coarse discretization go away. It also makes space feel more 'alive' and 'welcoming' to me. Home can be anywhere now, it doesn't have to just be the handful of stations/colonies nearby. Of course, I've not implemented anything like this before, nor have I played a space game with these constructs in it, so I could be imagining a false feeling...but I don't think I am. There's something to it -- walking through Ald-Ruhn/Suran/Balmora, having people cross your path, seeing their homes nearby (yes, I played some Morrowind recently, sue me. Outlander.) It feels warm, alive. I always wanted space to feel that way. Not so cold and desolate. Maybe I should continue to give some thought to spicing up the civilian side of things.


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That's all for today. April should be better for us work-wise (and, by extension, devlog wise), as real life is promising to be less obtrusive than last month. The 100% gameplay commitment doesn't hurt either :)


~Josh




Link to original: viewtopic.php?f=30&t=6473
“Whether you think you can, or you think you can't--you're right.” ~ Henry Ford
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Re: The Limit Theory Email/RSS News Thread

#47
Friday, April 20, 2018

Yet again I bid you a happy Friday, fellow pilots!

It's been a fun two weeks. I've concentrated my efforts entirely on the game simulation and high-level AI, in pursuit of a working economy, as per my last log. I'm pleased to report that, after two weeks, we do indeed have a small but working economy happening.


Major Additions Since Last Time:
  • System 'economy caching' ported & re-worked from old code; helps AI agents reason about job and market availability within a system or zone
  • High-level AI reasoning; forms the basis of AI players' ability to dynamically choose a profession based on profitability analysis
  • Basic colony population dynamics (helps create a time-varying economic sink/demand for basic goods, thus seeding the system economy)
  • Market mechanics now fully-implemented including escrow, on-station/on-colony storage lockers for temporary storage of bought goods or canceled sell orders, etc etc.
  • Limited implementation of Zones -- already in-use by AI for reasoning about job locations, but no zone gameplay mechanics (ownership, laws, etc.) yet
  • Happened upon a new algorithm for individual asteroid/ice/debris/whatever placement within fields, resulting in much more natural looking fields (no longer are they obviously ellipsoids :oops: )

At this point I've ported most if not all of the important simulation & high-level AI features that were previously implemented, meaning that I'm now getting to think about and solve new problems -- a welcome departure from porting! The next step for me is smoothing out the volatility of the economy and AI behavior. It's somewhat interesting that periodic/cyclic patterns always seem to emerge in my basic simulated economies when AI agents don't have access to historical data. That result is pretty obvious I guess, but still, interesting to see "those who don't remember the past are doomed to repeat it" play out so literally on-screen. The cyclic behavior can be seen as far back as Development Update #15 (March 2014!), when I introduced colony dynamics and AI job switching for the first time. I've never done a great job of smoothing over this volatility before, but I'm quite convinced that it's a pretty simple matter of factoring in historical data (EMAs mostly) + having a distribution of various AI behaviors with respect to time scale. Some AI agents should act on fast-moving EMAs, making 'short-sighted' decisions about jobs & markets, while others should act on slow/long-period averages, making 'long-term' decisions -- together, the result is a smoothing of the economy at all time scales.

Here you can see the overly-volatile economy in an 8-planet (the other six are off-screen), 50K AI agent simulation. Notice the jagged population graph as well as the obviously-visible 'flocks' of blue AI ships, which are due to market conditions changing so rapidly that thousands of AI units decide to change jobs all at once, hence the 'mass migrations.' Of course, so many units changing behavior all at once will cause yet another major shift in market conditions later on, which will, in turn, produce yet another flock of dissenters, and so on, ad infinitum :geek: With historical averages factored in, this would be a different story.

(NOTE: I know these screenshots are atrocious, but that's part of the point. When I work on the game simulation, I need to be focused 100% on behavior & dynamics, and 0% on graphics/tertiary concerns! As you can see, that is very much the case here :lol: )

Image

Here you can see how a colony that has just recovered from a population crash (and is about to experience a large period of growth) is attracting droves of water traders due to high demand and correspondingly-high prices. Having no access to historical data, the traders are doomed to oversupply the colony, indirectly setting the economy up for the next crash.

Image

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I've spent a fair amount of time this week reading papers on market economy simulation (of our own planet, just to be clear). Never before have I really dove deeply into the colony simulation; previous iterations of colony dynamics were still quite placeholder, and really just designed to create an elastic demand for basic goods. The problem of colony simulation is important to me not only because I want the simulation dynamics of LT to create interesting, meaningful behaviors and opportunities, but also because the problem of simulating a colony is precisely the problem of performing a coarse simulation of a (sizable) economy (which is important to us for many reasons, including OOS system simulation and historical simulation at universe-creation-time). Ideally, insights uncovered in my quest to implement a decent colony simulation will bear fruit that can be applied toward the 'big daddy' of remaining problems in LT development: OOS/historical simulations.

Thus far, research has been fairly uninspiring. Many papers in this field address the elephant-in-the-room fact that the field itself has produced models of consistently-poor accuracy. It is not really surprising to me when you look at the models and equations in question :ghost: Lucky for me, I don't care about predicting what will happen to the global economy of Earth...I only care about creating interesting dynamics for fictitious universes! Since I've been having trouble finding inspiring reading on this topic, I would welcome any sources that you guys might know of -- papers, articles, books or the like that you may have stumbled across that have good insights into quantitative models/simulations of global economies/populations/anything interesting. In the end I'm sure my model will end up being simple (like everything I love)...likely just a vector of quantities and a Jacobian of their relationships; but I do like being inspired along the way, and my brain is enjoying getting to read new solutions to new problems again!

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Going forward, my next steps are:
1. Recording & factoring historical data into AI reasoning
2. Capital Expenditure in AI & simulation (purchasing new ships, building a new station, warp rails, etc.)
3. Information mechanics in AI & simulation

2 and 3 are both highly-unexplored territory for me, so I'm excited to dive in. Information, in particular, is one of the few remaining 1.0 mechanics that really lacks in past or present implementation. I did have information itself implemented in LTC++, but none of the AI algorithms actually used information correctly. The ability of an AI agent to perform a job should depend on whether or not the agent actually knows about the location and/or associated object of the job. In addition, AI agents need to be able to place value on information that 'unlocks' new job/action possibilities, which strikes me as being very similar to capital expenditure in the sense that it's a one-time cost that provides continuous future benefit (it is inherently difficult to formulate a 'correct' value for such costs).

I'm hoping to have all of this (economy, simulation, high-level AI) in good shape by the end of the month or perhaps in another two weeks. That's an ambitious goal, to say the least -- we're talking about a pretty massive chunk of what makes LT LT here. Still, I think it's at least possible to have the framework and general strategies for all of this done by then. Naturally I will have to tweak constants and so forth when we playtest and realize that the AI is actually too smart and is ruining the player experience ( :ghost: :P ), but having all of the algorithmic bits and general solutions in place will certainly make me feel better about remaining dev effort.

That's all for today, back to coding, see you soon o7

~Josh




Link to original: viewtopic.php?f=30&t=6483
“Whether you think you can, or you think you can't--you're right.” ~ Henry Ford

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